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Mexico analysts slightly raise 2026 and 2027 inflation and growth forecasts

Private analysts polled by the central bank see higher inflation and growth and no further rate changes through 2027, shaping expectations for Mexican monetary policy.

Photo: Kansas City Star

What happened

Private sector analysts surveyed by Mexico's central bank edged up their forecasts for headline inflation and economic growth for 2026 and 2027, the bank said on Tuesday. Kansas City Star+1 Headline inflation is now expected to end 2026 at 3.88%, up from 3.87% in the previous month's survey, and to close 2027 at 3.85%, compared with 3.82% before. Kansas City Star+1 Gross domestic product is now expected to grow 1.50% in 2026, up from 1.40%, and 1.83% in 2027, up from 1.80%. Kansas City Star+1 Analysts do not expect any further change to the benchmark interest rate, currently 6.50%, through the end of 2027. Kansas City Star+1

Around it

The survey covered 40 analysts and was taken between October 19 and 29, with the figures shown as medians. Kansas City Star+1 Core inflation for 2026 is now seen at 3.82%, down from 3.90%, while the 2027 core estimate rose to 3.82% from 3.78%. Kansas City Star+1 The median peso-dollar forecast for the end of 2026 moved to 18.39 from 17.50, and for 2027 to 18.64 from 18.04. Kansas City Star

Sources

  1. Kansas City StarMexico analysts slightly lift inflation, growth forecasts
  2. indexbox.ioMexico Inflation Forecasts Rise for 2026-2027 as Growth Estimates Improve

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